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US and Canadian Oil and Gas Resources and Reserve Replacement for 2019

Updated May 2020

Solomon’s US and Canadian Oil and Gas Resources and Reserve Replacement for 2019 analyzes the proven oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public US oil and gas producers as well as the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in Canada. The report includes:

  • Reserves booked by US and Canadian producers
  • Reserve replacement per country and per producer
  • Reserve life index per producer
  • Ranking of producers based on their reserve replacement and reserve life index
  • Assessment of gas resources in the US and Canada

Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2030

Updated April 2020

This report provides planning information for pipeline companies, producers, and those in the oil and gas service sector who have an interest in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The report includes forecasts for the WCSB to 2030 for natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity. It also discusses production by gas strategy area and provides detailed gas supply allocations for the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin plays. The report also includes a short-term natural gas outlook due to COVID-19.

GHG Emission Reduction Strategies for the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry

Updated March 2020

The GHG Emission Reduction Strategies for the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry report provides historical data on GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission, analysis of sources of emissions in North American energy, and GHG emission reductions technologies and strategies with their associated costs. The report also presents Solomon’s GHG Emission Reduction Model for selecting the most cost-efficient emission reduction technology and strategy.

Canadian Oil Forecast to 2030

Updated February 2020

This report forecasts both oil sands and conventional oil production to 2030 for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and East Coast Newfoundland. It provides an overview of pipeline capacity, analyzes full-cycle cost for in-situ and mining oil sands production, and provides Solomon’s assessment of CO2 emissions. Also included is a forecast for East Coast offshore Newfoundland production, as well as conventional and Tight Oil production forecast.

North American Natural Gas Liquids Production Outlook to 2030

Updated January 2020

This report provides a forecast for North American production of natural gas liquids (NGL) to 2030 for the US “Lower 48” states and Western Canada. Individual forecasts are provided for all the major NGL-producing regions or play areas, including Appalachia, the Eagle Ford Shale, the Permian Basin, and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin WCSB). The production outlook for Western Canada covers NGL resource locations, NGL production forecasts, propane supply sources, and propane supply-demand balances. The report also includes a summary of major recent NGL infrastructure projects.

North American LNG Exports to 2030

Updated December 2019

This report provides an overview and outlook for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand market as well as a synopsis on how growing North American export projects will contribute to global supply. Also included is a forecast of global LNG demand market growth with particular focus on China, Japan, and South Korea, global LNG supply/demand balance, LNG liquefaction capacity growth, and the status of US and Canadian liquefaction projects.

North American Oil Full-Cycle Cost and Production Outlook

Updated November 2019

This report provides a detailed analysis of North American oil full-cycle costs for tight-oil basins (such as the Permian, Bakken, Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) as well as for selected conventional basins in the states of Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. In addition, the report provides oil production forecast for North America, as well as production, connections, rig count, and initial productivity forecast for North America and individual Tight Oil and selected conventional basins.

Gas Price Basis Differentials Forecast to 2030

Updated October 2019

This report focuses on North American natural gas price basis differentials for nine regional pricing points relative to Henry Hub. Solomon’s forecast for these differentials provides an in-depth examination of how changes to regional flow patterns and to North American supply-demand allocations will impact basis differentials going forward to 2030. The report also provides a forecast of TC Energy Mainline tolls and discusses the structural change in AECO-NIT basis from post-2020 tolling.

Henry Hub Gas Price Outlook to 2030

Updated September 2019

In this report, Solomon assesses Henry Hub pricing to 2030 using its proprietary price model and its understanding of North American full-cycle costs. Solomon believes that changing supply costs are a key influence on long-term natural gas prices in North America, and its assessment of natural gas prices takes into account both gas supply price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas supply) and gas demand price drivers (factors that increase or decrease gas demand). Also analyzed within the report are macroeconomic assumptions (GDP, inflation) and the impact that worldwide LNG pricing and growing US LNG export levels will have on North American prices at Henry Hub.

North American Natural Gas Production Forecast to 2030

Updated August 2019

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” based on Solomon’s forecasting models for gas well productivity, connections, rig count, decline, and production. This ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply is made available by assessing gas production at the basin level. The basins include Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Arkoma, Permian, and others. The result of this analysis is a forecast for North American gas production growth (including Western Canada) to 2030.

North American Natural Gas Full-Cycle Cost Analysis

Updated July 2019

This report provides clients with an apples-to-apples comparison of the full-cycle cost of natural gas in North America’s most economic and prolific basins. This analysis will aid producers, service companies, and pipeline firms looking to deploy capital to the most economic resources in North America. The report includes analysis of Duvernay, Montney, Haynesville, Utica, Marcellus, and Permian natural gas plays.

TC Energy Mainline Tolling Post-2020 and Eastern Triangle Market Forecast

Updated June 2019

Solomon’s TC Energy Mainline Tolling Post-2020 and Eastern Triangle Market Forecast provides clients with insight into TC Energy Canadian Mainline tolling and overall gas requirements at Empress and into the Eastern Triangle to 2030. The report includes market assessment for Western Canada gas supply, Eastern Triangle demand forecast to 2030, as well as Eastern Triangle supply-demand balance to 2030 with proposed strategies for winning in the Eastern Triangle Market. The report also includes TC Energy Mainline flows and tolls forecast.

Permian Oil & Gas Overview and Forecast to 2030

Updated March 2019

This report provides a detailed analysis of supply, demand, cost, resources, and infrastructure in the Permian basin. It includes forecasts for oil and associated gas production, number of connections, number of rigs, and initial productivity in the Permian to 2030. Also included is a full-cycle cost and resource assessment for major Permian plays and formations, including Wolfcamp, Wolfbone/Spraberry, and Bone Spring. A key section of the report provides an overview of the growing infrastructure capacity in the Permian. This section provides forecasts for oil pipeline capacity growth and US refining by oil type. Also covered are the increasing impact of growing Permian oil production on Gulf Coast refining and the impact of Permian oil exports on international markets. Finally, the report looks at natural gas production and processing in the Permian, focusing on gas processing capacity and gas pipeline proposals.

Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity

Updated August 2018

Solomon’s Strategic Energy Advisory (SEA) Retainer Service has provided clients with an assessment titled Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity. The current National Energy Board (NEB) hearing on RH-001-2018, Application for the 2018–2020 Mainline Tolls, will decide tolls that will apply on the Mainline until the NEB-approved settlement (RH-001-2014) between the three large Ontario and Quebec local distribution companies (LDCs) expires in 2020. This report provides a forecast for long-haul TransCanada Mainline tolling post-2020. Understanding tolling post-2020 is of utmost importance to those making decisions regarding go/no-go drilling budgets, longer-term hedging, gas-plant and capital investments, and overall activity levels.

Growth of North American Gas Demand to 2030

Updated July 2018

The report forecasts North American gas demand by sector and region to 2030 by examining seven key individual sectors (residential, commercial, power generation, industrial, pipeline & lease fuel, US exports to Mexico, and transportation). Specific market drivers for each sector are forecast, and insight is provided on a driver-by-driver basis. The forecast is further broken down into Canada (by province) and six primary US regions. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, part of the industrial sector, are expected to have the largest impact on overall demand growth. Growth in the power generation sector results primarily from the shift in coal-fired generation to natural-gas-fired power and renewables. Data in Excel™ format is available for SEA clients on Solomon’s SEA portal.

Worldwide LNG Outlook to 2030

Updated June 2018

This report provides an overview and outlook for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand market as well as a synopsis on how growing North American export projects will contribute to global supply. Also included:

  • Forecast of global LNG demand market growth
  • Global LNG supply/demand balance
  • LNG market evolution:
    • North American projects linked to Henry Hub pricing
    • The demise of Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC) pricing for new and re-contracted supply
  • Status of US and Canadian liquefaction projects

US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025

Updated March 2018

The US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025 topic paper focuses on the Northeast Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica gas plays. Topics covered include Solomon’s gas resource estimate, Marcellus and Utica gas production, new gas well productivity, well connections forecasts, as well as predicted supply/demand balance to 2025. The topic paper also covers pipeline capacities, new pipelines, and pipeline expansions in the US Northeast.

Western Gas Markets Supply-Demand Balance

Updated June 2017

This topic report provides an overview of target markets and a forecast for Canadian gas exports by point to 2025. Expectations for market competition in regions where Western Canada gas competes are reviewed, and a regional supply-demand balance forecast is provided, including a forecast for Western Canada gas exports by export pipeline. Also discussed are expectations for east coast Canadian gas production and pipeline flows within the region.

North American Economic Ranking – Natural Gas Basins

Updated March 2017

This report delivers detailed insight into the cost components driving full-cycle costs and break-even natural gas prices by play. It is designed to help clients manage their asset portfolios—allocating capital to those gas plays that have the lowest break-even gas prices. The report may also be used for due diligence in evaluating acquisition opportunities.

Rockies Natural Gas Market Assessment 2016

Updated February 2017

This report includes a forecast for the U.S. Rockies and Permian Basin gas-producing regions and addresses production, well connections, initial productivity, and typical decline rates. Also assessed is the forecast for regional demand growth by sector and potential flows into other North American regions and Mexico.

Renewable Power Outlook to 2025

Updated June 2016

The Renewable Power Outlook to 2025 report provides a forecast for North America’s rapidly growing renewable power generation sector to 2025. The report focuses on the primary drivers of renewable generation and provides a detailed discussion of each of the five generation types: hydro, wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. It also addresses the impact of renewable power on natural gas-fired generation.

Gas Demand for Oil Sands to 2025

Updated February 2016

This report analyzes more than 150 oil sands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing and that require natural gas for process heat, upgrading, steam generation, or electric generation. The report represents a major revision of an earlier Solomon report on the same topic that was issued 10 years ago. It forecasts both oil sands production and related natural gas demand by major project over the next 10 years, addresses pipeline and rail export capacity, and shows how Solomon’s production forecast fits within the Alberta NDP government’s proposed emissions cap. Gas demand for the oil sands sector will account for over 2% of total North American gas demand in 2025.

Mexico Natural Gas Outlook to 2022

Updated July 2015

This report provides Solomon’s forecast for the Mexican natural gas industry to 2022. It begins with an analysis of Mexico’s new regulatory framework and then moves on to a detailed analysis of demand and supply. Also covered are import requirements for the US Lower 48.

Impact of Low Oil Prices

Updated March 2015

This report analyzes the impact of lower oil prices not only on oil production but on full-cycle oil costs, the shut-in oil price, the economics of oil sands projects, cash flow for growth plays, and drilling. Also analyzed are lower natural gas liquid (NGL) revenues and the economics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) project economics. The size of the considerable resource in four key oil plays is assessed, demonstrating the long-lived low-cost potential of these plays.

Gas for Power Generation to 2022

Updated February 2015

This report analyzes the growing role of natural gas in the North American power generation mix as environmental regulatory pressures continue to mount against coal. The report provides a forecast of power generation, by fuel type, to 2022 and discusses coal-to-gas switching, cost of new generation, and the rapid growth of non-hydro renewables such as wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Lastly, it provides an illustration of the power generation fuel mix for six US regions and each Canadian province.

Pipeline Cost in North America

Updated June 2014

This report analyzes capital costs for a new natural gas transportation infrastructure in Canada, the US, and Mexico. Our pipeline cost database incorporates 10 years of assessment data for more than 180 pipelines. The data show that the average estimated pipeline capital cost in 2014 has doubled since 2007. The US Northeast is the most expensive region for building new pipelines, with a typical cost 95% greater than the North American average. The higher cost is due to higher costs for steel, labor, and construction, as well as higher population density.

Pipeline Repurposing

Updated March 2014

This report discusses the implications of growing shale production on the pipeline industry, including the conversion of natural gas pipelines to carriage of natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil. The report forecasts oil and NGL regional production growth, natural gas pipeline conversions into oil, and NGL use versus the growing supply. The US Northeast has traditionally been a substantial market for US Gulf Coast gas. However, supply growth in the US Northeast is creating opportunities for creation of new facilities, alteration of existing flows, and repurposing of existing infrastructure for alternative fuel service.

Shale Gas Production Outlook by Play to 2022

Updated February 2014

This report analyzes North American shale basins and provides a forecast for shale gas development to 2022. Shale gas will expand to comprise more than 60% of North American gas production by 2022. Because oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids enhance the economics of drilling wells, most wells, including those drilled in Eagle Ford, SW Marcellus, Duvernay, and Utica, will be drilled for liquids.